Rabbit Valley Road

Kate Sheppard points out that Waxman’s challenge and subsequent victory represents more than just a change in leadership:

But really, this isn’t about Waxman himself, though environmentalists are certainly cheering yesterday’s vote. It’s about the changes in the House that precipitated this shift. Waxman defeated Dingell by a vote of 137-122, which is of course close. But considering the historical inclination to let seniority prevail and the anticipated lack of desire among Democrats to overhaul such an important committee so soon after a successful election, Waxman’s win is truly a sign that there is fervent desire for change on this front.

Assuming that the sole issue of Waxman’s challenge was in fact cap and trade legislation, the conclusion is pretty clear: Cap & Trade will happen in the next 2 years. Democrats probably have the votes for it, and it was never off the agenda as Nordhaus & Shellenberger hoped.

Ezra Klein gives some historical context:

And though this is a direct victory for Waxman, it’s a quiet triumph for Pelosi. Without her tacit support, Waxman’s campaign would have quietly died. Meanwhile, few in the House will forget that she tried to solve this problem months ago by letting Dingell remain at Energy and Commerce and creating a new Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming. Dingell fought her efforts, and managed to neuter the new committee.

Given the wide range of power vested in the House Energy and Commerce Committee, I wonder if there’s more to Waxman’s challenge than just carbon regulation, but I don’t really know enough about inter-House politics to make those kind of conclusions. Just a thought.